As a longtime NFL successful bettor and sports betting writer, my friends have often asked me for advice on a certain game or NFL matchup. They say, “What’s the secret to beating the NFL?” Well, the truth is that is there is no “secret” to successful NFL handicapping, but that it takes experience, hard work and sports betting knowhow. The best way to make yourself a better handicapper and win more money is to work on your methods.
My friends and many other sports bettors want an easy way to make fast cash, or for someone else to do the work for them. There are plenty of services that offer them the allure and promise of making substantial money at sports betting with little work, but come with varying fees.
Of course, I’m talking about pay for pick handicapping services, otherwise known as “touts.” I never recommended touts to my friends and have told them to steer clear of these guys because, they don’t have the best track record.
The whole theory of selling top tier expert betting advice is counterproductive to making a lot of money at betting sports. I’m not saying there are not successful, honest handicappers who sell their picks, but there are way too many questions marks and instances of dishonesty to take 99 percent of these guys seriously.
A tout’s bread and butter is the NFL season and these guys know it. They actively promote themselves (and their “expert” handicapping picks) in the preseason, throughout the season, up until the Super Bowl. Many advertise on the radio, through internet sites and in magazines. They say they are professionals and they tell you that they are going to help you win big all season long, but the only catch is that you have to pay for their advice.
If you don’t see any red flags already – you are deluding yourself. Here’s why you should avoid for paying for NFL picks.
It Just Doesn’t Make Sense
The entire philosophy behind handicapping is getting the best prices on your wagers and hitting the books on their weak lines before they can adjust. For this reason, it is hard to believe that a highly successful handicapper would be selling his “expert” line-changing picks for a few hundred dollars.
Why wouldn’t the expert capper just take advantage of his expert knowledge of betting markets and bet the games himself? Why would someone with the ability to crush the sportsbooks with his methods sell his picks and not just exploit the edges against the sportsbook himself? After all, touts claim to be expert sports bettors that make millions. Many guarantee bettors that they can win 60 percent or more of their wagers.
If I could consistently hit above 60 percent handicapping the NFL, (by the way, no one can!) I would not be selling my picks to the masses for hundreds of dollars or even thousands. I’d grow my bankroll as best as possible and build more capital. I would be one of the best sports bettors in the world, and I’d have no reason to risk giving way my methods or plays to the masses so that sportsbooks could adjust against me.
If you are genuinely killing the sportsbooks and making tremendous money betting to the point where they actually fear your action, you would be crazy to give away your plays for such trivial amounts compared the amount you are allegedly making.
Blunt, but true. These guys are liars. Firstly, there have been many instances of them exaggerating their records or simply just making up their past betting history. Many of them don’t post long term records of their picks. Even the ones that do rarely go back past the current season, you can almost never view the long term yearly records of these scamdicappers.
They consistently mislead bettors by saying things like, “We’ve hit 5 out of our last 7, Sunday afternoon NFL games!” Even their bullshit does not sound convincing, but yet people still pay seem to buy it and hand them money.
Betting sports for a living is difficult, even winning sports bettors rarely bet sports solely for a living. Sure, there are some successful lifelong handicappers out there, but we seriously doubt they are the ones selling a full season of NFL picks for $800. Most successful bettors bet sports part-time and have other careers. The guys who are doing it for a living are not hawking their picks via toll free telephone lines.
Touts lead bettors to believe that they have a team of experts working for them and that they spend 10+ hour days sitting at their computers crunching numbers and looking at the lines. They present a ridiculous outward image to bettors and say things like, “Lock of the Year” or “100 STAR PLAY OF THE MONTH!” Oh, they must have put a lot of work into capping this game and must feel enthusiastic about it – yeah, right.
The reality of the situation is probably a guy sitting by his phone trying think of new ways to sucker sports bettors into paying them for their “expert advice.” There’s almost certainly no team of people working around the clock to get you the best handicapping picks. Also, there is no way to know much work (if any) they are putting into their handicapping.
They Come Off Desperate
If you have ever talked to a tout via phone or email, you will no doubt understand what I mean. After their opening spiel, endless hype about their exceptional picks and record and all the money they are going to make you, the conversation soon turns to payment.
However, when you refuse and tell them the amount is too much for you to afford the conversation changes. Suddenly, their $1000 NFL picks season package has dropped to $800. If that is still too much for you, not surprisingly, the price drops again and so on. Many bettors have reported thousand dollar tout season picks packages being dropped down to $100, after some apprehension on the original asking price.
For a service that offers elite handicapping advice that will make bettors rich, why does it feel like a con-job? That is because it likely is one. The fact that they are desperate to keep you on the phone and get you on the hook for even a fraction of their original offer should tell you all you need to know. These guys don’t even have integrity and pride in their own product.
The Line May Not Be Available
They will often release a pick with the best line for their play, even after the market has been adjusted by the sportsbooks. If the odds are no longer available for you to bet, it doesn’t make the pick useless, but it certainly hurts its value.
These services will often count the best line offered as their official pick odds on their site (and posted record) and is one of the reasons their records are so inflated in many cases. If they recommend a game at -2.5, but the line has already moved to -3 or -3.5 at most sportsbooks, what good does it do for you? If the -2.5 cashes, the service will count it as a win and you will be out of luck.
Handicapping is a process that must learned through hard work. The majority of touts are nothing but con-artists looking for easy marks.
Furthermore, paying for picks when as a smaller bettor it can put a dent in your already small bankroll and make it even tougher to beat the sportsbooks. If you spend $800 on NFL picks from a service, that is $800 more you have to win to break even on the year.
There’s nothing wrong with looking at free picks and betting write-ups. It’s always good to hear different opinions on the week’s matchups. I will offer plenty of free NFL handicapping picks to bettors on this site, and I’ll never ask for a dime in return.
Handicap the games yourself, don’t pay for picks via a service – you can thank me later.